Use of Predictive Weather Uncertainties in an Irrigation Scheduling Tool Part II: An Application of Metrics and Adjoints

We apply predictive weather metrics and land model sensitivities to improve the Colorado State University Water Irrigation Scheduler for Efficient Application (WISE). WISE is an irrigation decision aid that integrates environmental and user information for optimizing water use. Rainfall forecasts and verification performance metrics are used to estimate predictive rainfall probabilities that are used as input data within the irrigation decision aid. These input data errors are also used within a land model sensitivity study to diagnose important prognostic water movement behaviors for irrigation tool development purposes simultaneously performing the analysis in space and time. Thus, important questions such as “how long can a crop water application be delayed while maintaining crop yield production?” are addressed by evaluating crop growth stage interactions as a function of soil depth (i.e., space), rainfall events (i.e., time), and their probabilistic uncertainties. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Coupling of the Water Cycle with Patterns of Urban Growth in the Baltimore Metropolitan Region,United States

Regional municipal water plans typically do not recognize complex coupling patterns or that increased withdrawals in one location can result in changes in water availability in others. We investigated the interaction between urban growth and water availability in the Baltimore metropolitan region where urban growth has occurred beyond the reaches of municipal water systems into areas that rely on wells in low‐productivity Piedmont aquifers. We used the urban growth model SLEUTH and the hydrologic model ParFlow.CLM to evaluate this interaction with urban growth scenarios in 2007 and 2030. We found decreasing groundwater availability outside of the municipal water service area. Within the municipal service area we found zones of increasing storage resulting from increased urban growth, where reduced vegetation cover dominated the effect of urbanization on the hydrologic cycle. We also found areas of decreasing storage, where expanding impervious surfaces played a larger role. Although the magnitude of urban growth and change in water availability for the simulation period were generally small, there was considerable spatial heterogeneity of changes in subsurface storage. This suggests that there are locally concentrated areas of groundwater sensitivity to urban growth where water shortages could occur or where drying up of headwater streams would be more likely. The simulation approach presented here could be used to identify early warning indicators of future risk.     

An Analysis of Patterns and Trends in United States Stormwater Utility Systems

Several factors, such as municipality location and population, are thought to influence trends among stormwater utilities (SWUs); however, no analysis of the relationship between these factors and SWU characteristics has been performed. This article corroborates hypothesized relationships and identifies trends and patterns in the establishment, funding mechanism, and magnitude of SWUs by analyzing location, population density, home value, and year of establishment for a comprehensive national SWU database with data for 1,490 SWUs. The equivalent residential unit (ERU), a SWU that charges based on impervious area, was the most prevalent funding mechanism in all National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Regions of the United States except the West and West‐North‐Central. The ERU was also found in larger cities with high population densities, whereas the Flat Fee, a SWU that charges a single rate for all properties, was found in smaller towns. Higher home values were correlated with higher monthly fees for 28% of the municipalities analyzed. The residential equivalence factor, a SWU that charges based on runoff produced, was popular in municipalities with higher home values, whereas the Flat Fee was popular in municipalities with lower home values. The number of SWUs established increased with Phase I municipal separate stormwater and sewer system (MS4) permit and Phase II small MS4 permit deadlines. Summary tables provide guidance to aid municipalities considering a SWU.     

Applying network theory to prioritize multispecies habitat networks that are robust to climate and land‐use change

Designing connected landscapes is among the most widespread strategies for achieving biodiversity conservation targets. The challenge lies in simultaneously satisfying the connectivity needs of multiple species at multiple spatial scales under uncertain climate and land‐use change. To evaluate the contribution of remnant habitat fragments to the connectivity of regional habitat networks, we developed a method to integrate uncertainty in climate and land‐use change projections with the latest developments in network‐connectivity research and spatial, multipurpose conservation prioritization. We used land‐use change simulations to explore robustness of species’ habitat networks to alternative development scenarios. We applied our method to 14 vertebrate focal species of periurban Montreal, Canada. Accounting for connectivity in spatial prioritization strongly modified conservation priorities and the modified priorities were robust to uncertain climate change. Setting conservation priorities based on habitat quality and connectivity maintained a large proportion of the region's connectivity, despite anticipated habitat loss due to climate and land‐use change. The application of connectivity criteria alongside habitat‐quality criteria for protected‐area design was efficient with respect to the amount of area that needs protection and did not necessarily amplify trade‐offs among conservation criteria. Our approach and results are being applied in and around Montreal and are well suited to the design of ecological networks and green infrastructure for the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services in other regions, in particular regions around large cities, where connectivity is critically low.     

Modeling and data assessment of longitudinal salinity in a low-gradient estuarine river

Continuous data of vertical-profile salinity were analyzed for four stations located successively upriver in a macrotidal estuary, the lower St. Johns River (Northeast Florida, USA). The data analysis confirmed well-mixed salinity conditions in the river with at most 1.3 ppt of vertical variability at Dames Point (river km 20), where the main variations of salinity are along the longitudinal axis of the river. Given the well-mixed salinity conditions and dominant horizontal structure of salinity variations in the river, we present and apply a barotropic, two-dimensional modeling approach for hydrodynamic-salinity transport simulation in the lower St. Johns River. When properly forced by offshore surge, high-resolution wind fields and freshwater river inflows, the model replicated the salinity measurements remarkably well, including the separation into tidal and sub-tidal components. The data and model results show that, at times, offshore winds and surge can be more influential on longitudinal salinity variations than local winds over the river. We demonstrate the importance of using proper boundary conditions to force the model relative to the minimal sensitivity of the model to parameter adjustment of horizontal mixing and uncertainty-based perturbation of wind and inflow forcings.     

Urban sustainable energy development: A case study of the city of Philadelphia

Cities throughout the world are key sites for energy sustainability activities. However, analysis of such efforts to date has focused on a sub-set of atypical cities: early adopters and/or world cities. This article undertakes a case-study analysis for an ordinary city, Philadelphia, PA in order to assess the extent to which prior research provides adequate policy explanation for ordinary cities and to gain empirical insight on two under-researched aspects: policy actors, and the policy-making and implementation sites (action sites) for urban energy sustainability. Overall, the types of policy drivers, modes of governance, and enabling factors and barriers in the Philadelphia case fit with prior studies. Focusing on actors and action sites, however, offers insight on the city’s relative policy-making approach based on “non-controversy”, the key role of third-sector actors in both policy-making and implementation, and the diversification of action sites through external-level policy-making operationalised locally nevertheless at the expense of reduced control by urban actors. These findings lead to recommendations for urban energy sustainability research and practice.     

Mercury in San Francisco Bay forage fish

In the San Francisco Estuary, management actions including tidal marsh restoration could change fish mercury (Hg) concentrations. From 2005 to 2007, small forage fish were collected and analyzed to identify spatial and interannual variation in biotic methylmercury (MeHg) exposure. The average whole body total Hg concentration was 0.052 μg g⁻¹ (wet-weight) for 457 composite samples representing 13 fish species. MeHg constituted 94% of total Hg. At a given length, Hg concentrations were higher in nearshore mudflat and wetland species (Clevelandia ios, Menidia audens, and Ilypnus gilberti), compared to species that move offshore (e.g., Atherinops affinis and Lepidogobius lepidus). Gut content analysis indicated similar diets between Atherinops affinis and Menidia audens, when sampled at the same locations. Hg concentrations were higher in sites closest to the Guadalupe River, which drains a watershed impacted by historic Hg mining. Results demonstrate that despite differences among years and fish species, nearshore forage fish exhibit consistent Hg spatial gradients.     

Influence of biochar on nitrogen fractions in a coastal plain soil

Interest in the use of biochar from pyrolysis of biomass to sequester C and improve soil productivity has increased; however, variability in physical and chemical characteristics raises concerns about effects on soil processes. Of particular concern is the effect of biochar on soil N dynamics. The effect of biochar on N dynamics was evaluated in a Norfolk loamy sand with and without NHNO. High-temperature (HT) (≥500°C) and low-temperature (LT) (≤400°C) biochars from peanut hull ( L.), pecan shell ( Wangenh. K. Koch), poultry litter (), and switchgrass ( L.) and a fast pyrolysis hardwood biochar (450-600°C) were evaluated. Changes in inorganic, mineralizable, resistant, and recalcitrant N fractions were determined after a 127-d incubation that included four leaching events. After 127 d, little evidence of increased inorganic N retention was found for any biochar treatments. The mineralizable N fraction did not increase, indicating that biochar addition did not stimulate microbial biomass. Decreases in the resistant N fraction were associated with the high pH and high ash biochars. Unidentified losses of N were observed with HT pecan shell, HT peanut hull, and HT and LT poultry litter biochars that had high pH and ash contents. Volatilization of N as NH in the presence of these biochars was confirmed in a separate short-term laboratory experiment. The observed responses to different biochars illustrate the need to characterize biochar quality and match it to soil type and land use.